Goodbye Liz Cheney, What Happens Next?
Why Liz Cheney lost her primary and the difference between her and other Republicans, and what it could mean for the future
Last night, Liz Cheney (R-WY) lost the lone Wyoming house seat in her primary to challenger Harriet Hageman. Cheney faced opposition over her stern position against former President Donald Trump, along with her position and closeness with Democratic lawmakers on the January sixth committee. Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, repeatedly called the January sixth capitol riot an “insurrection”, to the ire of her fellow Republicans. However, January sixth was only the beginning.
The people of Wyoming (on a large scale) were against Cheney because of her very stark anti-Trump rhetoric, and this isn’t like other moderate Republicans, or similar rhetoric from people like Mitch McConnell (R-KY), but this was because Cheney’s rhetoric was the forefront of her political image. When you are someone like McConnell or Susan Collins (R-ME), the major political image of them was not of someone who is against the de facto head of the Republican party. McConnell was seen as the establishment Republican who would hold the party together against attacks from Democrats or internal strife. Collins was seen as the moderate Republican whose duty was to try and restrict the more far-right members of the Republican Congress. It doesn’t matter if this is how Republicans see them nationally. What matters is that the people of Kentucky think Mitch McConnell is doing a good job representing their beliefs on policy and how the Republican Party should work, and that is why McConnell keeps getting elected. The people of Maine see Susan Collins as someone who represents their interests and helps reign in the more extreme elements of the Republican Party, not to mention the fact that she is a Republican in a state Biden won in 2020. Collins serves to represent what the people of Maine want, even if that is what she disagrees with. The same goes for Mitch McConnell, Nancy Pelosi, Ted Cruz, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
The difference with Liz Cheney was that she was trying to be like Susan Collins, a Trump skeptic, in a state that is very pro-Trump. This is why it is not an oxymoron to say that Collins and Cheney, who share similar views on Trump, are different. Collins is a Trump skeptic in a state skeptical of Trump. Cheney is skeptical of Trump in a state that is largely supportive of him. Liz Cheney’s downfall is that she simply did not represent the beliefs of the people of Wyoming, and the people of Wyoming decided to elect someone who is more likely to stand for their beliefs and interests, not try to prevent a former president from ever becoming president again. Susan Collins represents the interests of Maine. Liz Cheney didn’t represent the interests of Wyoming.
When we look at congressional races, we must remember that the people up for election are only tasked to serve the state that elects them. Congressmen are not like President Biden, who had to try and win the support of the whole country. Senators need to only win the support of the state they live in. Representatives only need to win the support of the district they live in. While most of the country may be supportive of Liz Cheney, that is irrelevant. What mattered was whether the people of Wyoming did.
So, what potential changes could this mean for the Republican Party? Overall, it is going to be impossible to know for sure what the future could look like. However, we can make a prediction. This move could further alienate the more moderate wing of the Republican Party that is supportive of people like Cheney, Collins, and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). There is a potential that this could end up with moderate Republicans either not voting come Election Day, or with them voting for different candidates. While this probably won’t hurt Republican chances in states like Wyoming, Iowa, or Texas, it could hurt Republicans in battleground states like Arizona and Pennsylvania, and close existing gaps in states like Florida and Virginia. This also could serve to embolden more far-right elements in the Party. Now that it seems that Republicans as a whole are less forgiving of people like Cheney, we may see more outspokenness and mainstream thought from people like Marjorie Taylor-Greene (R-GA). Again, we can’t know for sure until we see more.
Finally, what are any potential chances for Liz Cheney to run for president? I would say incredibly low. Wow in a primary race it is probable that she would win in states that tend to be more moderate like Alaska or Maine, it is highly unlikely that she would win in more important states like Texas, Iowa, or Kentucky, and it is fairly certain she won't win in Wyoming or Florida. If she were to run against Trump, or even Ron Desantis (Republican governor of Florida), it would be incredibly unlikely that she would even win a primary. However, if she were to win the primary somehow (maybe everyone else turns into a squirrel), she could pull a win. Her stance as being a “moderate” could garner her support from states like Maine, and could sway independents in her direction in battleground states. And as it is incredibly unlikely that any other states turn blue or vote for a third party (assuming Trump doesn’t form the MAGA party) she could conceivably pull off a win in the general. However, mainstream Republican sentiment is very anti-Cheney, making it unlikely for her to win a primary.
So, will Liz Cheney have a shot at the presidency? No. Does Cheney’s loss signal a change in the Republican Party? Perhaps. But most of all: did Liz Cheney suitably represent the people of Wyoming? The people said no, and in a democracy that is what matters. Come January 20th, Liz Cheney will no longer represent Wyoming, and the shockwaves of that be anything.
Thank you for reading! I hope you enjoyed and if you would like to see more, please consider subscribing, it helps me out a ton. If would like to read some of my other works, check out my thoughts on Liz Cheney asking Democrats to switch parties and vote for her in the primary, or my article about the Inflation Reduction Act President Biden singed into law. Or perhaps for a less political article, How Reddit is Actively Screwing Over Wall Street. Thanks once again for reading, and have a great rest of your day!
Well thought commentary on Liz Cheney's lost.