The past few years have been interesting. Ever since the riot on the Capitol on January Sixth, the political culture and the nature of our country has changed. Political division has increased, and the Democratic Party has become evermore progressive and the Republicans have leaned into the populism wing of the party. This has led to an interesting situation heading into the midterm elections this November. History tells us that Republicans have an upper hand by virtue of not being the party in power. However there is still general outrage (largely by Democrats and independents) at the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling that overturned the federally guaranteed right to abortion laid out in Roe v. Wade and gave the abortion question back to the states. There are several factors that could poor into what political party has control of Congress come January 2023, and they all are incredibly important to the political future of the country.
The first thing that could determine which party holds Congressional control is history. Since the Roosevelt Administration, the party that doesn’t hold the presidency (this cycle the Republicans) loses 25 seats1. The number jumps up to 37 seats for when the president has an approval rating of less than 50 percent, which is bad news for Democrats as Joe Biden has an approval rating of 43%23. This is a good sign for the Republicans, who currently are tied at 50 sand a seats with the Democrats in the senate and a seven seat deficit in the House (with five vacancies). However, one reason for this inherent advantage held by the minority party may not be as big of a factor in this midterm is energy. As Forbes report:
Lack of interest plays a big role with the supporter-base of the party that won the presidential election usually feeling content about that victory, resulting in a low turnout.4
However, looking at how the election is currently playing out, it would be foolish the say that Democrats are not excited and energized for this election.
Another key factor that will play into the election is economics. The U.S economy is currently in a recession. The GDP is consistently falling, inflation is skyrocketing, and the cost of most goods have shot up. The current inflation rate is projected at 8.5% in 20225. This could prove to be incredibly harmful for the Democrats, as they are the ones in power and taking the blame. Not to mention the all time high gas prices from over the summer that are still fresh in the minds of many Americans.
This makes it seem as if the GOP has the midterms on lock, right? They don’t. Many senate races are close, with fivethirtyeight projecting Republicans to lose several key races, like the one between Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock (D) in Georgia, Mehmet Oz and John Fetterman (D) in Pennsylvania, and Blake Masters and Mark Kelly (D) in Arizona6. However, the races are tightening ahead of Election Day, and with two months to go with races this close, anything could happen. However, Democrats are projected to win the house outright, albeit slightly7. Republicans fare much better in the House however, being favored to win the House according to fivethirtyeight8.
The final factor of note is semantics. The Left is making a big push to paint Republicans as “semi-fascists” but that move is backfiring. The FBI raid on Donald Trumps Mar-a-lago home is another semantic talking point from Democrats. They are also making a big deal out of the Dobbs decision, trying to stir their base and independents into a frenzy. Republicans are doing similar things, calling the Biden administration authoritarian and taking constant shots at both Biden and the Left as a whole.
Overall, it is difficult to make any prediction of how the midterms will go, instead we will only have to wait and see. If you would like to see more in depth breakdowns of individual races, please like this post and leave a comment.
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McCarthy, Niall. n.d. “Historically, the President’s Party Performs Poorly in the Midterms [Infographic].” Forbes. Accessed September 7, 2022. https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2018/10/09/historically-the-presidents-party-performs-poorly-in-the-midterms-infographic/?sh=238462c26732.
Ibid.
Silver, Nate. 2021. “How Popular Is Joe Biden?” FiveThirtyEight. January 28, 2021. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/.
Ibid (1)
“United States Inflation Rate - July 2022 Data - 1914-2021 Historical - August Forecast.” n.d. Tradingeconomics.com. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi#:~:text=US%20Inflation%20Rate%20Below%20Forecasts.
Silver, Nate. 2022. “2022 Senate Election Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/.
Ibid.
Silver, Nate. 2022. “2022 House Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/.