The China Threat
An examination of Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, and the threat China poses
The era of American history ranging from 1945 to 1991 is known as the Cold War. At the time, the biggest rival on the world stage, and the biggest threat to world peace, was the Soviet Union. However, in 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed, and the United States became triumphant. Now we are in a similar situation with China. China has quickly became a massive player on the world stage, both politically and economically. They now pose a threat to American dominance on the world stage bigger than any other country, even Russia. But what exactly is this threat?
Today, the third most powerful member of the U.S government, third in line to the presidency, Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), visited Taiwan. The visit was widely praised by people at home (though there was some early criticism from President Biden), with bipartisan support for Pelosi after a Chinese propagandist and editor of a tabloid owned by the CCP Hu Xijin wrote:
“If US fighter jets escort Pelosi’s plane into Taiwan, it is invasion. The PLA has the right to forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane and the US fighter jets, including firing warning shots and making tactical movement of obstruction. If ineffective, then shoot them down.”1
Meanwhile, Chinese spokesman Zhao Lijan said “If the U.S. side is bent on going its own way, China will take strong measures to resolutely respond and counteract,”2. However, when Pelosi actually landed China didn’t take any major action like Hu Xijin stated. Instead the major actions were comparatively small. From Reuters, “several Chinese warplanes flew close to the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday morning before leaving later in the day,”, while warships did the same3. “Four U.S. warships, including the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, were positioned in waters east of Taiwan on what the U.S. Navy called routine deployments.” during the visit as well4. China has also been conducting more military drills than normal in the last couple of weeks.
Nancy Pelosi laid out the reasons for her visit in a Washington Post op-ed, saying:
In recent years, Beijing has dramatically intensified tensions with Taiwan. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has ramped up patrols of bombers, fighter jets and surveillance aircraft near and even over Taiwan’s air defense zone, leading the U.S. Defense Department to conclude that China’s army is “likely preparing for a contingency to unify Taiwan with the PRC by force.”5
Pelosi went on to say:
“our congressional delegation’s visit should be seen as an unequivocal statement that America stands with Taiwan, our democratic partner, as it defends itself and its freedom.”6
You can read her op-ed in full here.
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is the first by the speaker of the house in 25 years (the last being Newt Gingrich. The changes in U.S-China relations are yet to be seen, with China yet to issue a major reaction.
This is all a vivid reminder of the major threat China poses to Americas superpower status. China for years now has boosted its manufacturing capacity. Perhaps the greatest proof of this manufacturing capacity is the fact that it seems almost all goods are made in China (I am sure you’ve heard the joke). But the statistics back it up. The largest supplier of American goods in 2020 was China, totaling at a value of $434.7 billion7. The vast majority of these goods (over half) is related to machinery and electrical machinery. China develops a lot of simplistic computer chips as well, along with being a leading manufacturer in items like cell phones, computers, appliances, and airplanes. The major problem with China potentially invading Taiwan is that Taiwan is a massive producer in the more advanced chips, like the ones used in newer cell phones and electronics, along with U.S military equipment. Taiwan’s biggest chip developer has 55% market share in the industry8. According to the Bank of America (from CNBC): ““In 2001, 30 companies manufactured at the leading edge however as semi manufacturing grew in cost and difficulty, this number has fallen to just 3 firms” — TSMC, Intel and Samsung”9. If Taiwan is “merged” (read conquered) by China, this major capacity is given to China, or if the Taiwanese destroy the factories and TSMC buildings, lost for the foreseeable future. This leaves the last remaining hub for these leading edge chips in South Korea. South Korea, if you recall, is bordered by North Korea, who similarly wants to unify with the South, and is also near China, who is a major supporter of the North and also, would love to monopolize the chip industry. To the credit of Congress, they have looked to remove this reliance on Taiwan and South Korea by passing the CHIPS Act, which was signed today by President Biden. The bill (from CNBC):
“includes more than $52 billion for U.S. companies producing computer chips, as well as billions more in tax credits to encourage investment in chip manufacturing. It also provides tens of billions of dollars to fund scientific research and development, and to spur the innovation and development of other U.S. technologies.”10
On the military side of things, China is vastly increasing its military presence in the region. They have been running routine exercises over Taiwan now for years, and have had the famous situation of the islands they are building in the South China Sea. It seems as if China is trying to make it easier to defend the Chinese mainland in the event of war with America, knowing that the U.S has major allies in the region including South Korea, Japan, and Australia. In March, Admiral John C. Aquilino reported that China has fully militarized three islands in the South China Sea11. This further expands the Chinese threat in the South China Sea and the greater Pacific Ocean.
China has also bolstered its major military branch capabilities in recent years. According to Global Fire Power, China is ranked the third strongest military in the world, behind Russia and the U.S. Global Fire Power writes:
“China (No.3) continues its climb to the No.2 spot owned for some time by regional powerhouse Russia (No.2). The nation owns a distinct advantage economically and by way of sheer manpower and has placed a decided focus on increasing (primarily through local means) naval, airpower, and land warfare capabilities. If the trend continues, it will become the primary global military adversary to the United States (No.1) - which still commands the top spot for the current year.”12
According to Chinese military reports (from Al Jazeera), so keep in mind its largely propaganda, China claims to have 915 thousand active duty soldiers, the largest navy in the world, and the third largest air force13. The military is also reporting that China is building more nuclear missile silos, with “Researchers at the Federation of American Scientists estimate that China has approximately 250 underground missile silos under construction after they used satellite imagery to identify a new field being built in western China.”14. China is rapidly catching up to the U.S militarily, and again is already posed to overtake Russia in military capability (and probably already has, considering how the Russian invasion of Ukraine is going).
The world is at a geopolitical crossroads right now, and is potentially at one of the most crucial points of world history. The threat China poses to American dominance on the world stage needs to be examined. Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan marks a major development in U.S-China relations. We all need to examine what is happening right now, and take note of it. And why should we prevent China from becoming more powerful? Well that my friends, is the topic of tomorrow.
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Saavedra, Ryan “China Threatens to Shoot down Pelosi’s Plane If She Tries to Visit Taiwan.” n.d. The Daily Wire. Accessed August 2, 2022. https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-china-threatens-to-shoot-down-pelosis-plane-if-she-tries-to-visit-taiwan.
Ibid.
Lee, Yimou, and Sarah Wu. 2022. “Pelosi Arrives in Taiwan, Voicing U.S. ‘Solidarity’ as China Fumes.” Reuters, August 2, 2022, sec. Asia Pacific. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pelosi-expected-arrive-taiwan-tuesday-sources-say-2022-08-02/.
Ibid.
Nancy, Pelosi. 2022. “Opinion | Nancy Pelosi: Why I’m Leading a Congressional Delegation to Taiwan.” Washington Post, August 2, 2022. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/02/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit-op-ed/.
Ibid.
“The People’s Republic of China | United States Trade Representative.” n.d. Ustr.gov. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china#:~:text=U.S.%20goods%20imports%20from%20China.
Kharpal, Arjun. 2021. “How Asia Came to Dominate Chipmaking and What the U.S. Wants to Do about It.” CNBC. April 12, 2021. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/12/us-semiconductor-policy-looks-to-cut-out-china-secure-supply-chain.html.
Ibid.
Breuninger, Kevin. n.d. “Watch Live: Biden Signs Bill to Boost China Competition and U.S. Chip Production.” CNBC. Accessed August 2, 2022. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/biden-signs-china-competition-bill-to-boost-us-chip-production.html.
“U.S. Admiral Says China Has Fully Militarized Islands.” POLITICO. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/20/china-islands-militarized-missiles-00018737.
“2022 China Military Strength.” n.d. Www.globalfirepower.com. https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=china#:~:text=For%202022%2C%20China%20is%20ranked.
Yuan, Shawn. 2021. “Just How Strong Is the Chinese Military?” Www.aljazeera.com. October 29, 2021. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/29/just-how-strong-is-the-chinese-military.
Wu, Huizhong, and Jon Gambrell. 2021. “US Military Warns China Is Building More Nuclear Missile Silos.” Military Times. July 30, 2021. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2021/07/30/us-military-warns-china-is-building-more-nuclear-missile-silos/.