Trumps Impact on the Midterms and His Run For President
Trumps major announcement today and his impact on Congressional races
The 2022 midterm election was not good for the Republicans. Somehow, both major parties managed to lose, with the Democrats losing the House but gaining a single seat (Pennsylvania) and the Republicans barely winning the House and losing a seat in a senate. As a reminder, the Republicans had a 59% chance to win the senate and 84% in the house1. As it currently stands, according to Associated Press projections, the Democrats lead the Senate 50 seats to 49 (Georgia will go to a runoff between Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R)), and the Republicans lead the house 217 to 209. Republicans are one seat away from the House, which could be there’s soon. This however, was not what they expected. Republicans expected massive gains in the House and a Senate majority. But how did this happen?
Yesterday in my recap of the midterms, I gave three possibilities for why Republicans didn’t do so well, with one of these being this:
the presence [of] Donald Trump. While the former president holds massive amounts of sway among the Republican base, he is incredibly unpopular upon independents.2
And this coincides well with this announcement from Donald Trump tonight:
“In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States.”3
Trumps run for reelection was not entirely unexpected, as speculation had run amok of his run for months, starting shortly after his 2020 defeat. However, the difference between Trump and who is expected to be his chief competitor in the Republican primary, Ron DeSantis, has shifted from Trumps favor to that of DeSantis. As The Daily Wire reports:
One poll, commissioned by the Club For Growth, found that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had overtaken Trump 48% to 37% in Iowa, 52% to 37% in New Hampshire, 56% to 30% in Florida, and 55% to 35% in Georgia.4
This all goes down to the main point of this article. Trump is incredibly unpopular among independent voters in states that matter. While he is incredibly good at getting the Republican base to get out and vote, he has had problems with independents since his 2020 defeat and subsequent denial of the election.
This all can be especially proven in the Georgia senate race. While admittedly, Governor Brian Kemp has more political experience and capital than Herschel Walker, Kemp won big in his race while Walker is currently losing his Senate race. Brian Kemp (R) defeated Stacy Abrams (D) with 53.4% of the vote compared to Abrams 45.9%. However, Herschel Walker (R) lost to Raphael Warnock (D), with Warnock winning 49.4% of the vote to Walkers 48.5% That is a 5 point swing between Kemp and Walker.
What is the main difference between the two? Brian Kemp was the man who refused to go along with Trumps election denial shenanigans, and Trump slammed him for it. Trump repeatedly said he was ashamed of his endorsement of Kemp when he was first elected governor of Georgia, and that he had caved to the Left. Herschel Walker was a Trump endorsed candidate with no prior political experience. In fact, Walkers reason for being in the spotlight had nothing to do with politics, but instead in his football career with the Cowboys, Vikings, Eagles, and Giants. Walker really only won the primary for the race because of Trumps endorsement.
Yet Walker still walked. This leads to a likely reality: voters in Georgia (which is a swing state) are very conservative, but prefer a Democrat over Trump. Perhaps this vision of him will change in the next couple of years as he runs for president, but is the current reality. Georgia is a swing state as it stands, and Republicans need to cognizant of the fact that Trump is unpopular there.
The same stands in another state (and a likely decider of the 2024 election), Pennsylvania. John Fetterman (D) defeated Mehmet Oz (R) there with 51% of the vote compared to Oz’s 46.5%. While not as eye-popping as Kemp and Walker (Josh Shapiro (D) won the governorship by similar margins), it once again raises the Trump question. Both the senatorial and gubernatorial candidates were endorsed by Trump. Is Trump beginning to lose his sway over independents there too? The same can be said by the loss of Blake Masters in Arizona.
Listening to Trumps speech tonight however gives me some hope. Trump seemed to be a much calmer and mature man than he has been over the past few years. If Trump once again wants the presidency and to remain a leader in the Republican Party, he needs to seal the rifts he has created, along with solidifying his confidence in our electoral process, even if he truly doesn’t believe in it. For Trump to win his second term eight years after his first, he needs to be less of 2020 Trump and more of 2016 Trump.
The Republicans however shouldn’t blame their defeat on him. There were still other things that hindered their success in the midterms. Trump was simply one small factor in a big fish bowl of them. The party needs to assess itself and decide where to go from here, and fast. 2024 will be a crucial election for the future of the party, and if Republicans have any hope to win, they need to start making changes.
Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed, please consider subscribing. If you would like to read my recap of the Midterms, check it out here. Or this article about When Biden Calls Republicans Facist. Thanks once again for reading and have a great rest of your day!
Silver, Nate. 2022. “Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More or Less Back Where It Started.” FiveThirtyEight. November 8, 2022. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2022-election-forecast/.
McMillen, Kenny. n.d. “The Midterm Recap.” Kennymcmillen.substack.com. Accessed November 16, 2022. https://kennymcmillen.substack.com/p/the-midterm-recap.
Saavedra, Ryan. 2022. “Trump Launches Third Bid for White House.” n.d. The Daily Wire. Accessed November 16, 2022. https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-trump-launches-third-bid-for-white-house.
Ibid.